CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-12-04T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-04T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22636/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen faintly to the East in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A. The exact source is not clear, however one potential source of this CME is a filament eruption seen near N28E25 just NE of a large coronal hole starting around 2022-12-03T23:55Z, best seen in SDO/AIA 304 and 193. There is some deflection seen in SDO/AIA 094 to the SE of the eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-07T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 06:09
Radial velocity (km/s): 633 
Longitude (deg): -44
Latitude (deg): -8
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes:
East directed CME, possible associated with filament lift off visible in H-alpha imagery from 3/2357UT. Model is low confidence as it indicates a glancing blow partially due to parker spiral effects.

Lead Time: 51.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-12-04T23:05Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy